Minnesota Real Estate Investors Association, Inc.

You may have heard this term thrown around lately, but what the heck is it? Shadow Inventory is basically inventory that hasn’t made it to the market yet. There are several components to Shadow Inventory.

First of all, the banks are short staffed, so they can’t file NOD (Notice of Defaults) and complete the foreclosure process as fast as new borrowers are falling into default. The average borrower in foreclosure has been delinquent for 438 days before actually being evicted, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That is the first part to “Shadow Inventory”.

Secondly, a lot of lenders that are taking properties back through the foreclosure process are supposedly holding on to them through holding companies and not releasing them to the market. Their reasoning is actually a valid one. They are afraid that if they release too much inventory to soon, housing values could plummet. And I agree with that assumption, but I am one who prefers to rip the band aid off quickly.

I have heard and read, but n
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As reported on MarketWatch, foreclosures and/or delinquent mortgages reach 14.41% in the third quarter. Does that surprise you? It does a lot of other people, but not the people who are out in the trenches like me.

I have been telling people for months now that we haven’t even seen the worst of it yet. What we have seen so far is that responsible Americans have been struggling to hold on to their homes and other assets and retirement accounts. Most people have been able to do so for a while, but not anymore. We have reached the breaking point, and while Congress and the White House keep telling us that the recession is over, I don’t think the average person sees it that way or even feels it.

Most sellers that I talk to these days have all been telling me pretty much the same story. They have either lost their jobs or taken severe pay cuts over the last year. Many have attempted loan modifications, but most have not been successful. Most of these people bought or refinanced their houses during the peak of the market, and since then, their incomes have been severely cut or totally lost over the last year.

These
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Here is an article from the Associated Press “Retail Sales rise unexpectedly in January”. Really? Unexpectedly? Really? How can this be unexpected? Oh yeah, silly me, the Economic Recovery Bill hasn’t passed yet, so in theory, this cannot be possible. However, it is what it is and it has happened. So what is really going on here? Simple, the economy is beginning to recover on its own. Yes, I said “On its own.” I know for some people it is hard to believe, but it is true.

Let’s take a look at what has happened over the last year and put the pieces of the puzzle together. The two biggest factors were gas prices and house prices. These are the two biggest items that drives a person’s day to day life. When light crude oil prices reached record levels in 2008 at almost $150 a barrel, gas prices were around $4.00 a gallon or higher. At the same time, real estate values were plummeting at record levels and no one could sell or refinance without taking a hit.

Foreclosures reached historic levels in 2008 and prices started dropping fast as these properties either went through foreclosure or loan modifications. While everyone expects even more foreclosures over the next couple of years, that is to be expected as that always happens after a boom, which
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It’s that time of year again, when we sit down and reflect on the previous year and look forward to the year ahead of us. This past year has been filled with extreme swings in the economy and our emotions. For some people 2008 was a great year and for others it was a nightmare. I have been caught right in the middle of both, so I guess for me, everything evened out and it was a year that makes me look back and ask, what the heck happened. I had some winners and some losers. The losers of course came in the last quarter of the year and I did pretty well during the first 3 quarters of the year. Some might look back with discouragement and frustration. I however am looking ahead with a clear determination to make 2009 the best year ever.

With the shake up in the credit markets and the stock markets, I see huge potential for 2009 in real estate. I believe we have hit the bottom, for the most part. A new president and administration will take office on January 20, 2009 and they have made it clear that they are focused on stimulating the economy. Again, for some this will be good and for others it will be bad. For real estate investors, this will be very good. Just like when the real estate market was hot, the economy seemed unstoppable and real estate prices climbed to artificially high prices, the collapse of the credit and financial markets has artificially lowered real estate prices below the point of where they normally would have settled at.
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