Minnesota Real Estate Investors Association, Inc.

Everyone knows that as interest rates rise, real estate prices drop.  It is only natural.  If the current interest rate is 4% on a $300,000 loan, the monthly PI (Principle & Interest) payment is $1,432.25.  If the interest rate goes up to 7% and the average buyer can only afford a monthly payment of $1,432.25, then the maximum amount they can borrow goes down to $215,277.40.

This is affectively what has happened over the past year and a half, so why have prices continued to climb?  That’s a great question and can be explained by the extremely low inventory levels.  The level of inventory has been so low for so long that the principles of supply and demand have caused prices to increase dramatically. 

In other words, if interest rates hadn’t risen so much so fast, the average loan balance may have risen to $565,000.  That is what the borrowers could afford based on the current average monthly PI payment of $2,700 and an interest rate of only 4%.

The following chart shows the affect interest rates have on a borrowers ability to pay over the past 18 months.

25% of all listing had a price reduction last month and inventory levels are rising. We are still in a sellers’ market, but we are transitioning into a buyers’ market.  When that happens, sellers buyers become picking and stubborn sellers slowly become more receptive.  The first phase of this transition is for sellers to drop their asking prices, and that is starting to happen. 

The next phase, if interest rates remain high, will shock the sellers and if they have to sell, they will drastically drop their price to get a sale and that has a snowball affect on prices.  The only thing that can help the sellers now is for inventory levels to remain low and interest rates to drop a little.

 When you first think of the consequences of rising interest rates, you could naturally conclude that would drive real estate prices down.  Over the long haul, you would be right.  However, when you look at what is going on now as rates are rising, you might be shocked to see that both rates and prices are rising together.

Mortgage rates have been increasing steadily since the begging of the year 2022.  At the beginning of the year, mortgage rates were right around 3.2%.  As of the end of April 2022, mortgage rates have risen to around 5.2%. Some resources are show as high as 6.1% as of this writing.

The interesting thing is that the median sales price for real estate is also increasing. The median home values of Minnesota, my home state is currently $326k, the twin cities metro area is a little higher at $340k. 

So why are prices still increasing at the same time interest rates are also increasing.  To explain that you need to have a little understanding of economics.  In the simplest form, when supply is high and demand is low, rates tend to drop lower to encourage borrowing.  This is one of the tools that the federal reserve uses to spur growt
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Imagine this scenario… 

You find a good piece of real estate that you decide to buy. 

You have little money to buy it, but you decide to use whatever money you have as part of your down payment. 

You get qualified for a 90% LTV loan. 

You call around and you are able to raise the remaining money you need for the down payment from your close friends and family. 

You promise to pay them a generous interest rate of 8% for lending you their hard-earned money. 

The following month, you find another good real estate property that you want to buy.

You have no money to buy it, but you know you can raise the money. 

You have great income and credit and once again you get qualified for a loan with 90% LTV.

You call around and you are able to raise some of the money from your close friends and family. Again, you promise to pay them a generous interest rate of 8% for lending you their hard-earned money. 

This time, you remember about a line of credit you have, and so you decide to use all of it to close the deal.

You’ve now raised
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We live in uncertain times.  After the mortgage meltdown and the almost collapse of the financial industry, the real estate market has been going through several ups and downs.  The median sales price in my area went from its peak of $238,000 in June 2006 to a low of $138,500 in February 2012, back up to $210,000 in June of 2013 and we are on our way back down, currently sitting at $179,850 for January 2014.

There have been some wild swings in the past few years and the people that understand that and have kept a close eye on the trends, and have not been afraid of the market have made a lot of money the past few years.  However, I have seen most people sitting on the fence and haven’t done anything.  I can understand the feeling of uncertainty and being afraid to make a mistake, but let’s face it, if you’re afraid to make a mistake, you will never make it big.

You’re probably thinking right now “That’s easy for you to say Mike; you’ve been at this for a long time and have more experience than I do”.  While for many of you, that may be true, however, for your info, I have probably made more mistakes than most of you ever will, and I am still making mistakes.  But that is not holding me back.

That is one of the most common traits I see from those who are successful, even in this wild and uncertain market.  They are not afraid to make a mistake, and often do, but they don’t let that hold them back.

Everyone wants to minimize their risk of making a mistake and losing money or damaging their credit, myself included.  However, I see way to many people with paralysis of analysis and never do anything.  So what’s holding you back? 
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This spring the market was chugging along just fine.  Then a 30 year fixed rate loan increased to just under 5% and the market came to a crashing halt. During the months of August and September, one of our largest local lenders saw a 72% decline in new and refinance mortgage applications and retail, renovated properties seemed to just sit there if they were priced a little high. 

Interested rates dropped by a mere half percent and houses that were sitting there started selling again and mortgagee applications returned to the same levels as they were in June and July.

I am assuming that the Feds will keep rates low for the foreseeable future because the economy is still too fragile, as evidence by less than a 1% rate increase in the real estate market.

Ok, so it’s been a while since I have been able to post any updates to the blog.  This spring we were busy buying, selling and rehabbing houses.  Plus I spent a lot of time building and improving our website and member management and event registrations system call PROS – Professional REIA Operating System for REIA’s (Real Estate Investors Association).  And now we are spending our time creating new marketing campaigns and chasing down anything that might smell like a lead.

So what’s going on in the markets right now?  There are several issues we are dealing with lately.  Most recently, Interest rates have started to climb and there is a huge lack of inventory.  The lack of inventory can be explained by the rise of hedge funds buying billions of dollars worth of inventory directly off the market and from the banks, pulling most of the Shadow Inventory, out of the shadows. 

That is one of the primary reasons for the lack of inventory, but not the only one.  The banks stopped filing foreclosures, or at least slowed way down last year to deal with other issues, including packaging up shadow inventory for the hedge funds.  The banks are back on track now, but all that inventory that would have been hitting the market right now, is just now going through the foreclosure process and is expected to hit the markets later this year.

I have been hearing from fairly reliable sources, that the amount of expected foreclosures over the next few years is equal to the amount of foreclosures that have already happened over the past few years.  It should be an interesting next few years.

We knew this was coming, just a couple of weeks ago, BoA (Bank of America) sent out a letter to 1,000 customers who are currently in default offering them the option to rent the property back from BoA at fair market rent if they simply deed the property back to BoA in lieu of a foreclosure. This will only add to the currently unknown number of properties in the Shadow Inventory.

On Thursday April 5, 2012 the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement on the rental of REO’s.

The general policy of the Federal Reserve is that banking organizations should make good-faith efforts to dispose of OREO properties at the earliest practicable date. Consistent with this policy, in light of the extraordinary market conditions that currently prevail, banking organizations may rent residential OREO properties (within statutory and regulatory holding period limits) without having to demonstrate continuous active marketing of the property, provided that suitable policies and procedures are followed. Under these conditions and circu Read More...

The new headlines catch phase is “Robo Signer”. These robo signers have been signing foreclosure documents at a rate of up to 1 document per minute. That’s 5,000 – 10,000 per month. Everyone knows that it is not physically possible for these robo signers to have read every document. That is the reason everyone is calling for a moratorium on foreclosures. Or is it?

If everyone was upset with the fact that these robo signers were not reading all the documents, then why wasn’t everyone upset that congress has passed health care and over a trillion dollars in stimulus programs while all along admitting that no one could possible read all of it before voting on it. So ask yourself, are they really upset that the robo signers didn’t read the documents. If you are honest with yourself, then the answer would have to be no.

So what is the real reason everyone wants a moratorium on foreclosures. Politics… In 3 weeks there is a major midterm election and this could be one of the most historic elections in our country. The politicians on both sides of the isle are looking for something to blame and point fingers at to make themselves look like they care and that all our problems are the banks. 
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